IMF Projects Recovery From Recession In 2021

International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the world had entered a recession due to the coronavirus pandemic.But the IMF projects a recovery next year.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that they have reassessed the prospects for growth for 2020 and 2021. It was clear that the world had entered a recession as bad or worse than in 2009. Also, they projected recovery in 2021.

Recovery from COVID-19 in 2021

IMF managing director emerged from the meeting of the governing body of IMF and Financial Committee that represent 189 members. The meeting was to discuss the unprecedented challenge posed by COVID-19.

She said that the key to recovery was only if the international community succeeded in containing the virus and prevent liquidity problems. The US was in recession, as was the rest of the advanced economies of the world. Also, the developing economies were in recession. They were working on their projections for 2020 said Georgieva in the answer to a question.

Georgieva stressed the need for virus containment for the economy to stand still. She said that containment was very necessary to come out of this phase. Also, she highlighted the key concern of the long-lasting impact of the sudden stop of the world economy.

She said that there was a risk of bankruptcies and layoffs that not only could undermine the recovery but also could erode the fabric of the society. She further said that many countries had started taking measures like addressing their healthcare and cushion their economies to mitigate the effect of recession.

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India Becomes 5th Largest Economy Of The World

IMF’s October World Economic Outlook places India as the world’s fifth largest economy. The data says that according to the nominal GDP, India ranking is ahead than that of France and the UK.

IMF ranks India as 5th largest economy

The data shows that India’s GDP had been among the highest in the last decade. India achieved an annual growth of 6-7%. 2016 McKinsey Global Institute report gave many reasons for this growth. It said that urbanization and technologies improved efficiency and productivity. But the country’s real GDP was forecast to slow due to credit weakness.

Indian economy on the rise

In 2010, India was placed at 9th place behind countries like Brazil and Italy. But the country witnessed a dramatic rise in the last two and a half decade. The country’s nominal GDP has jumped more than 700% since 1995.

Challenges ahead for Indian economy

The country has many challenges to face despite showing strong potential to high growth. The World Bank report says that access to development and new opportunities has been uneven in the country.

According to UN, one-quarter of world’s poor live in India; only 39% of Indian population has access to sanitation facilities and nearly half of the Indians still defecate in the open.

Milestones achieved

The country achieved significant milestones in poverty reduction that is highest in the world. Today 160 million fewer people live in extreme poverty in 2000 compared to 2015. Also, the country is looking for more ways to ensure sustainable and inclusive future growth.

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IMF World Economic Outlook: India Growth Would Impact Global Growth Story

Gita Gopinath of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that India would have an effect on the global growth story. She further maintained that India had already pushed the global forecast down by 0.1%. She’s the Chief Economist of the IMF.

India projection of IMF

The world body has slashed India’s growth forecast in its World Economic Outlook released in Davos, Switzerland. It sees India’s growth to remain at 4.8% but it is 1.3% lesser in three months. Ms. Gopinath said that IMF revised the global growth down for 2019 by 0.1% considering the size of the Indian economy and its impact on global growth. She further said that the vast majority of the downgrade was from India.

Issue with India growth

Ms. Gopinath minced no words in highlighting the issue ailing the Indian economy. She said that the biggest issue was in the financial space. She indicated the stress in the financial sector, especially in non-bank financial corporations. The weakness in credit growth is visible and there appears to be an increased risk in lending in the markets. Also, there had been a weakness in rural income growth. But there was the hope of recovering GDP by up to 6.5% by 2021. The monetary and fiscal stimulus and subdued oil prices could support growth.

IMF on social unrest

The IMF report highlighted the link between social unrest and the erosion of trust in established institutions. Also, there was a lack of representation in governance structures. Ms. Gopinath said that nations should protect the vulnerable so that they weren’t left behind in the growth story.

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